Andrew Nathan has a review in this month’s issue of Foreign Affairs of Minxin Pei’s new book. ( Pei’s book looks at the weaknesses of present day reform in the PRC–particularly the issue of local corruption–and concludes that China “risks getting trapped in a ‘partial reform’ equilibrium.” A cycle of increasing expectations and diminishing progress not unlike that which preceded the upheavals of 1989. Nathan’s review in itself is a good state of the field on the current theories for China’s 21st century from Gilley’s optimistic forecast of democratization and stabilization to Gordon Chang’s jeremiad of a collapsing regime.
Nathan makes a final point in his review which I found very interesing. What does the US want from China?
“Although U.S. influence over China’s internal development is probably marginal, it is interesting to reflect on American leaders’ ambivalence about the future they want for China. Democracy, prosperity, stability, freedom, rule of law — if all good things go together, U.S. policymakers face no difficult choice. But because change is risky, Washington seems to want it both ways: Washington wants to sustain a dictatorial regime in China because the current government in Beijing is a familiar interlocutor, while at the