Jottings from the Granite Studio

Andrew Nathan has a review in this month’s issue of Foreign Affairs of Minxin Pei’s new book. ( Pei’s book looks at the weaknesses of present day reform in the PRC–particularly the issue of local corruption–and concludes that China “risks getting trapped in a ‘partial reform’ equilibrium.” A cycle of increasing expectations and diminishing progress not unlike that which preceded the upheavals of 1989. Nathan’s review in itself is a good state of the field on the current theories for China’s 21st century from Gilley’s optimistic forecast of democratization and stabilization to Gordon Chang’s jeremiad of a collapsing regime.

Nathan makes a final point in his review which I found very interesing. What does the US want from China?

“Although U.S. influence over China’s internal development is probably marginal, it is interesting to reflect on American leaders’ ambivalence about the future they want for China. Democracy, prosperity, stability, freedom, rule of law — if all good things go together, U.S. policymakers face no difficult choice. But because change is risky, Washington seems to want it both ways: Washington wants to sustain a dictatorial regime in China because the current government in Beijing is a familiar interlocutor, while at the same time it wants to push China to democratize. Chinese leaders are said to worry a lot about whether the United States would like to see a “color revolution” in China. At this point, the answer has to be that U.S. leaders do not know themselves.”

Historians, professionally at least, can sidestep the issue of “What happens next” by politely insisting that we only “see dead people.” But in our darker moments with stronger beverages, many historians like to live the conceit that our knowledge of the past gives us keen insight into the future. I am no exception. I tend to be a pessimist. While I am not a big fan of the current regime, I can easily imagine something far worst–either a descent into regionalism or else unification under a nationalist (little ‘n’) strong man. The possibility of an democracy springing fully formed in a “Beijing Spring” moment with Bob Dylan being sung in putonghua is just not as likely as the first two. Best case scenario, as far as I can see, is continuing incrementalism and the gradual loosening of controls over society and the economy and a firmer commitment on the part of the central government to local autonomy and local elections. But what do I know–I’m just a historian.

Also worth checking out in this issue “What to do in Iraq: A Roundtable.” A very concise overview of the problems facing the US forces in Iraq and some possible–though perhaps not always presidentially palatable–solutions.