Woke up this morning to find my fantasy football team is 4-1 and the Korean peninsula has officially gone nuclear. As Wu Ming pointed out in a comment to my most recent post, the US is likely to get more panicky than the South Koreans with Japan a close second. If Shinzo Abe needed some kind of extra push in his drive to remilitarize Japan, he found it.
In my last post, I talked about how Beijing used North Korea as part of a larger (and historically dubious) strategy of yi yi zhi yi or playing one foreigner off against another. For many years, the DPRK has been the pit bull in China’s front yard: really effective at getting attention and even better at making the neighbors nervous. The idea that only China could really wield the leash made Beijing indispensable in any discussion of Northeast Asian security. But here’s the thing: them pit bulls are unpredictable dangerous little dogs. Sure they’ll listen to the hand that feeds them, so long as that hand doesn’t pull too hard on the leash. Now the crazy little dog has been replaced by a crazy little dog with nuclear weapons.
From China’s perspective, there have never really been a lot of ‘best case’ scenarios for the Korean peninsula. China has little desire to see a DPRK collapse and a refugee crisis in Dongbei or for a unified Korean peninsula within the US-Japan strategic orbit. The status quo, crazy pit bull and all, seemed the most viable option for Beijing.
Well, the status quo exploded Monday morning at 10:36 a.m. near Kilju city, DPRK. The UN security council meets this morning. The US says, ‘the world will respond.’ The CIA keeps frantically refreshing its E-Bay account to see if anyone is putting up nuclear material for auction with a Pyongyang ’ship from’ address.
China called the act ‘brazen.’ Girls Gone Wild is brazen. Taking the last slice of pizza without asking is brazen. Bringing your girlfriend to ESPNZone for your anniversary because “the Sox are playing” is brazen. North Korea with nuclear weapons is downright terrifying. China needs to drop the charade and act as a responsible leader within the global community lest the United States take the lead role in any ‘response.’ Nobody, on either side of the Pacific, really wants it to come to that.
The dogs are loose. The question is: who will rein them in this time?
7 responses so far ↓
1 Good morning // Oct 9, 2006 at 3:54 pm
You should have awarded the most diligent blogger. You wrote this post at 7am.
This is going to be another Great Game. How will the US, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia play their next card? How will North Korea follow up? Will it usher in a terrific chapter in human history or just a plain one like India and Pakistan’s nuke test ? Can not wait and see
2 花崗齋之愚公 // Oct 9, 2006 at 7:37 pm
@good morning,
I don’t take credit for hustle, both Wu Ming and CBL tipped me off in the small hours last night.
I’d hesitate to describe the India/Pakistan nuclear situation as ‘plain.’ That said, I think the DPRK test has the potential for far greater destabilization if for no other reason than the great fear and loathing of Pyongyang in Washington and Tokyo: it makes a non-response nearly impossible.
3 good morning // Oct 9, 2006 at 8:23 pm
I had thought it would become mundane story since the players in this game do not have many cards to play. Is the sanction a banal card?
It would turn to be terrific if US disclaimed war again DPRK or Japan went nuclear then followed by Taiwan. But those sound like a fairy story. China is in a Catch-22 situation…..
It is time to test the intelligence of American, Japanese, Koreans and Chinese. Who will give us a surprise? May be the Russians.
4 wu ming // Oct 10, 2006 at 12:12 am
my guess is we see little more than harsh language and ineffective symbolic measures, and an indefinite continuation of the status quo until we get an american regime that has the sense to look at what the DPRK actually wants, and addresses it.
namely, security assurances and diplomatic recognition, with some food and oil aid thrown in to sweeten the deal.
kim is a far more rational player than he is portrayed as. weird guy and bad hairdo, but to his credit he’s been able to play chicken without actually bombing anybody for decades. the same cannot be said for ourown triggerhappy regime.
but then i’ve been predicting the non-invasion of taiwan for years now, so YMMV. my east asian hotspot wild-assed prediction batting average is 1.000 though, just sayin’.
5 花崗齋之愚公 // Oct 10, 2006 at 12:59 pm
s,
I like your optimism, but I don’t share it 100%. Perhaps this will be a non-event, but somehow I doubt it. Even China’s now getting into the act saying something needs to be done to bring Pyongyang to heel (following up on my earlier metaphor).
As for Taiwan, I’d like to see the PLA sit out an independence referendum or an actual declaration before I give them cookies for being good global citizens.
6 無名 - wu ming // Oct 10, 2006 at 3:14 pm
another interesting take by a mining geologist over at daily kos:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/10/151818/44
7 花崗齋之愚公 // Oct 10, 2006 at 3:58 pm
s,
Thanks for the link. I’m hopeful that the analysis is correct and that the DPRK does not, in fact, have a working bomb.
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