Jottings from the Granite Studio

There’s a new essay at OpenDemocracy by Kerry Brown, author of the book Struggling Giant: China in the 21st Century. Brown argues that while the Olympics currently dominate both the headlines and the attention of Chinese government officials, the twin problems of corruption and inflation will remain once the spotlight has been turned off, the athletes go home, and the One World, One Dream banners start to come down. When August’s celebration ends and September’s hangover subsides, will the people’s attention once again return to rising food prices and a culture of endemic local corruption?

First off, as a historian, I’m not sure I completely agree with the historical parallels Brown uses in his essay if only because China will be a very different place in 2009 than it was in 1989, never mind 1949, but as politicians the world over are all too well aware, pocketbook issues need to be taken seriously, even in places where the vast majority of people are shut out of the political process.

The CCP’s legitimacy rests on its perceived competence at managing economic development. Discontent over spiking food prices coupled with growing frustration over corruption, especially at the local level, threaten the Party’s key selling point: that only the CCP can effectively grow the economy while preserving social stability.

Brown argues:

All of this makes the billions of dollars spent on the Olympic games look increasingly incongruous. The main buildings are finished, and Beijing is now attending to the details. But the cold international atmosphere - assiduously reinforced by campaigners who have sought to brand the extravaganza as the “genocide Olympics” - has exposed the Chinese leadership’s obvious lack of preparation in the arena of images as opposed to infrastructure. The reaction in China to Stephen Spielberg’s resignation from the creative committee of the opening ceremony - both defensive and insinuating - is revealing of a deeper confusion. Despite seeking counsel from western public-relations firms, Chinese officialdom still has a long way to go in dealing with a story-hungry, fractious and sceptical foreign media that is very far from the pliant creature it is used to at home.

Thus, the great event on 8-24 August 2008 - far from the smoothly spectacular entry onto the global stage that Beijing envisaged - is shaping up to be a big test for the Chinese leaders (see Li Datong, “Beijing’s Olympics, China’s politics“, 22 August 2007). The problem for Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao and their comrades is that the international spotlight on their hosting of the Olympics (with all the criticism this entails) requires them to show to the Chinese people that they are standing up strong and proud for China’s interests at the very time when they must (in jittery economic circumstances) continue to deliver the all-important growth that they need to remain secure in power.

It’s not only about winning the image war. The central leadership of the CCP has displayed an ability to manage crises, to make changes, to generally keep the ship of state steady and allow the abilities and drive of China’s people to create an era of prosperity and growth which has lifted millions out of poverty. At the same time the government has also resisted implementing the types of bold reforms necessary to seriously tackle resulting issues of corruption, environmental degradation, rural discontent, and a rapidly widening gap between the haves and have-nots. The continued directives to state media organizations to avoid covering topics that might lead to ’social instability’ further suggest a government aware of the challenges, but still more concerned with preserving its own grip on power than in openly combating these issues by addressing root causes.

I learned when I was eight, that when a hamster dies, sticking the cage and the dead hamster in the back of your closet doesn’t make the problem go away or miraculously cure your pet of his sudden case of deadness, it just makes your shirts real stinky.

The Olympics–with thousands of athletes, fans, and media descending on a single city for two weeks in August–will be a challenge for the PRC government, as it would be for any government. But I agree with Kerry Brown: the real test won’t begin until afterwards. When the party’s over, those problems conveniently hidden from view during the Games will still be here, awaiting real solutions.