And it has come down from On High…the Beijing municipal government today unveiled its long anticipated Olympic traffic plan set to start July 20 and run through September. Odd number. Even number. It won’t matter. What does is that you can completely forget about getting a cab downtown on a weekday. Just start walking now, you’ll get where you’re going eventually.
Buses and subways are another issue, but I see the taxi situation growing positively Darwinian as the weeks stretch into months. Perhaps it’s time to start seriously consider dusting off the old bicycle…
2 responses so far ↓
1 froog // Jun 28, 2008 at 10:52 am
I think you’re being unduly alarmist about this, J.
First, I’m not sure how much the restriction on private cars will increase demand on taxis anyway. I think most private car owners are driving to show off that they have a car, not because they actually have anywhere to go. Most of them will be content to stay home on their ‘off’ days…. or buy a second car….. or just buy a second set of plates.
Also, it’s kind of hard to gauge how much time these guys actually spend on the road, but, given the difficulty of finding parking in this city, the number of hours of private driver road use should translate to a significantly lower number of hours of taxi usage.
Nearly half the cars in Beijing are government-owned, anyway (and I’d guess maybe three-quarters of those on the road in the city centre on a typical weekday); so, it’s how much those cadres might be competing for our taxis that is the real worry.
However, Beijing has a huge over-supply of taxis, and I think there’s plenty of slack to be taken up. Oh, sure, if you’re around Guomao in the late afternoon during the week or Gongti on a Friday or Saturday night, different rules may apply - but in general, how long do you usually have to wait for a taxi in this city? 10 seconds? And, except in very busy periods, the ratio of vacant to ‘in use’ cabs is, I’d say, at least 3:2. It’s not going to be a disaster if that ratio slips to say 1:5 or 1:6 and we sometimes have to wait 1 or 2 minutes for a cab. It’ll be tough at first, but we’ll get used to it.
Of course, if we really get 3 million foreign tourists here during the Olympics, that might become a problem - but I’m guessing that’s a tenfold overestimate.
2 Jeremiah // Jun 30, 2008 at 3:31 pm
M. Froog,
I’m not worried about off days, I’m worried about peak times when the demand for cabs, especially in Chaoyang, results in shouting matches, bruised egos, and a lot of waiting.
Then again, I need an excuse to kick an unwarranted and awful cab habit anyway and this might do the trick.
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