North Africa and China

There’s been a bit of discussion among China watchers on whether the anti-government protests in Tunisia and Egypt could happen here.

Count me among the skeptics.

So long as the economy keeps growing and there is a general feeling that urban standards of living are continuing to improve, then I think it is highly unlikely we would see anything like the Tunisia/Egyptian protests in China.

I think too that the kind of vertical (class) and horizontal (geographic) linkages of discontent which make the North African protests so worrisome to those governments are exactly the kinds of linkages the CCP goes to great lengths to prevent.

Anything can happen, but I think the effects of these events on China will simply be to confirm the fears of the Chinese government that a lack of control over information and dissent will only lead to trouble.  If anything, I expect to see greater restrictions on Internet access (Freedur VPN, RIP) and perhaps a stepping up of efforts to monitor potentially troublesome activists and those with grievances to share.

See also:

The Peking Duck, “Could it Happen in China?”

ChinaGeeks, “Egypt, China, and Revolution“

January 29th, 2011

An admiral and an aircraft carrier

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has come to China and in the Telegraph this morning, Malcom Moore writes about the debate over China’s military capabilities.

It has been a month to remember for the top brass of China’s People’s Liberation Army. While other armies fret about their funding, China’s generals have unveiled three major new weapons that could challenge the military supremacy of the United States and provide the firepower to underline China’s superpower status.

Stealth fighters that may or may not be all that stealthy with pilots of dubious quality, a killer land-sea anti-carrier missile that may or  may not be flying blind, gauging the state of the Chinese military these days seems more Ouija Board than Jane’s Defense Weekly, but one asset which has been fairly well documented is the former Soviet wannabe aircraft carrier Varyag, purchased several years ago for the low low price of $20 million and towed to China after a close out sale by the Ukrainian navy.

(Hmmm, which would I rather have: a luxury apartment in Beijing or an aircraft carrier…?)

The carrier now is in Dalian and, if rumors swirling since at least last year are correct, has been dubbed the

January 11th, 2011

Thank you for taking Beijing taxi…and three ideas to make the ride better.

I’m a taxi guy.

There is the Metro.  Fast. Modern. Immune to the gridlock just a few meters above. And totally packed out. At rush hour lines 1 and 2 resemble the alimentary canals of giant man-eating tube worms after an all-you-can-eat human  parts buffet.  Last week I had to tell the dude standing behind me that if he got any closer, he’d have to buy me a drink first.

The Beijing bus system is convenient and you’re never more than 50 meters from a stop, but they can be a tad unreliable.  Twice in the past month I’ve had the driver of the Number 8 bus simply stop on the North Third Ring and announce he wasn’t going any further.  I have no idea why but I’m guessing the riotous mob my fellow commuters formed ultimately beat the reason out of him.  Good times!

There’s always bicycle I suppose. But as a larger-sized mammal, I’ve found that my riding bikes to be far too amusing for passers-by than is perhaps good for my self-esteem or the general social harmony.

A colleagues suggested I buy a car, but with the streets clogged worse than a hutong sewer, the Beijing Municipal

January 5th, 2011

日历

January 2011
M T W T F S S
« Dec   Feb »
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31