There’s been a bit of discussion among China watchers on whether the anti-government protests in Tunisia and Egypt could happen here.
Count me among the skeptics.
So long as the economy keeps growing and there is a general feeling that urban standards of living are continuing to improve, then I think it is highly unlikely we would see anything like the Tunisia/Egyptian protests in China.
I think too that the kind of vertical (class) and horizontal (geographic) linkages of discontent which make the North African protests so worrisome to those governments are exactly the kinds of linkages the CCP goes to great lengths to prevent.
Anything can happen, but I think the effects of these events on China will simply be to confirm the fears of the Chinese government that a lack of control over information and dissent will only lead to trouble. If anything, I expect to see greater restrictions on Internet access (Freedur VPN, RIP) and perhaps a stepping up of efforts to monitor potentially troublesome activists and those with grievances to share.
See also:
The Peking Duck, “Could it Happen in China?”
ChinaGeeks, “Egypt, China, and Revolution“