There’s been a bit of discussion among China watchers on whether the anti-government protests in Tunisia and Egypt could happen here.
Count me among the skeptics.
So long as the economy keeps growing and there is a general feeling that urban standards of living are continuing to improve, then I think it is highly unlikely we would see anything like the Tunisia/Egyptian protests in China.
I think too that the kind of vertical (class) and horizontal (geographic) linkages of discontent which make the North African protests so worrisome to those governments are exactly the kinds of linkages the CCP goes to great lengths to prevent.
Anything can happen, but I think the effects of these events on China will simply be to confirm the fears of the Chinese government that a lack of control over information and dissent will only lead to trouble. If anything, I expect to see greater restrictions on Internet access (Freedur VPN, RIP) and perhaps a stepping up of efforts to monitor potentially troublesome activists and those with grievances to share.
See also:
The Peking Duck, “Could it Happen in China?”
ChinaGeeks, “Egypt, China, and Revolution“
Count me among the skeptics too. There’s an interesting juxtaposition in my Twitter stream between updates on Egypt and retweets of Gao Zhisheng’s wife talking about how Gao was tortured. It confirms (for me, anyway) the assertion I made on Sina Weibo earlier, that 從來就沒有專政是因為缺少狗腿子而垮臺。No dictatorship ever fell because of a lack of thugs.
@Brendan – So you’ve gone traditional on us? Say it ain’t so.
Yeah, it’s not likely to happen. You also have a very different civil society structure in Tunisia, Egypt, etc. with the Muslim Brotherhood making a big difference.
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jeremiah Jenne, William | niubi.com, Tom Lasseter, Marian Tobias Wirth, Jared Hall and others. Jared Hall said: @GraniteStudio explains why he doesn't expect the uprising in Cairo to spread to the streets of Beijing anytime soon http://bit.ly/eFp323 [...]
Still, I wonder what locals are saying about it.
[...] few of my fellow laowai bloggers have already begun wondering whether China could see a similar situation. Clearly, the [...]